Who Grants EU Asylum Protection Now vs a Decade Ago?

Key Takeaways

• Germany still issued the most positive first-instance asylum decisions in the EU in 2025, but its share of EU asylum protection fell from 48% in 2015 to 27%. One factor was the pause on Syrian asylum cases in early 2025. Many Syrian cases did not result in protection, partly because some withdrawn applications were recorded as negative decisions.
• Spain’s positive first-instance asylum decisions rose from 1,020 in 2015 to 75,835 in 2025. Venezuelans are a big part of this rise, because 9 in 10 Venezuelan asylum seekers in the EU apply in Spain, and almost all of them receive protection there.
• Sweden fell from second to 11th in the EU for positive first-instance asylum decisions between 2015 and 2025. The drop is linked to Sweden’s 2023 plan to make its asylum rules only as generous as EU law requires, aiming for fewer asylum seekers.
• In both 2015 and 2025, three countries accounted for about 69% of the EU’s positive first-instance asylum decisions. However, Spain and France replaced Sweden and Italy in that top three.

Positive First-Instance Asylum Decisions Across EU Countries

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Learn something new about Germany every week and make informed decisions with confidence.

Germany’s Share of Positive First-Instance Asylum Decisions in the EU Fell to 27%

Germany issued the most positive first-instance asylum decisions in the EU in both 2015 and 2025. However, Germany’s share of the EU total fell from 48.0% in 2015 to 26.8% in 2025.

A first-instance asylum decision is the first ruling a national asylum office makes on an asylum application. A positive decision means the asylum seeker receives protection in that country. Protection comes in three forms:

• Refugee status: for people facing persecution in their home country
• Subsidiary protection: for people who are not refugees but would face serious harm if sent home
• Humanitarian status: a protection status each country grants under its own national law

Germany’s positive first-instance asylum decisions fell 38% between 2015 and 2025. Yet Germany made more first-instance decisions in 2025 than in 2015. It granted protection in a smaller share of them.

The share of first-instance asylum decisions that grant protection is called the recognition rate. Germany’s recognition rate fell from 56.5% in 2015 to 32.0% in 2025.

Germany’s lower recognition rate is linked to decisions on Syrian asylum seekers. Syrians usually receive protection in 9 out of 10 cases.

However, in early 2025, Germany and many other EU countries paused or delayed decisions on Syrian asylum cases while the situation in Syria remained uncertain. During this period, only 17% of decisions on Syrian asylum seekers across the EU, Norway, and Switzerland resulted in protection. Part of the low rate reflects how decisions were recorded, not stricter rules, as some countries counted withdrawn applications as negative decisions.

At the same time, Spain and France issued many more positive first-instance asylum decisions. Together with Germany’s decline, that rise pushed Germany’s share of the EU total down.

Spain Now Ranks Second in the EU for Positive First-Instance Asylum Decisions

Spain issued 1,020 positive first-instance asylum decisions in 2015. Spain’s positive first-instance decisions reached 75,835, placing Spain second in the EU behind Germany.

Between October 2023 and January 2026, Spain received about 173,000 Venezuelan asylum applications. That was 9 in every 10 Venezuelan asylum applications across the EU, Norway, and Switzerland.

Venezuelans’ strong preference for Spain is linked to the shared Spanish language and close cultural ties between the two countries.

Since 2018, Spanish courts have recognized that Venezuela’s political and economic crisis can justify permitting Venezuelan asylum seekers to stay on humanitarian grounds. As a result, Spain has granted humanitarian status to Venezuelan applicants in almost all cases. This status allows people to live legally in Spain even if they do not qualify for refugee status.

Sweden Fell From Second to 11th in the EU for Positive First-Instance Asylum Decisions

Sweden ranked second in the EU for positive first-instance asylum decisions in 2015. By 2025, Sweden’s positive first-instance decisions had fallen 93%. That drop left Sweden 11th among EU countries.

Sweden’s decline is linked to a shift toward stricter asylum rules. In October 2023, the Swedish government set out to make its asylum rules only as generous as EU law requires. The government’s stated aim was to have fewer asylum seekers coming to Sweden.

Positive first-instance asylum decisions across the EU rose 11.0% between 2015 and 2025. Most of those decisions still come from a few countries, but the countries at the top can change within a single decade. A change in where asylum seekers apply, or in how strict one country’s asylum rules are, can reshape the whole EU ranking.