Key Takeaways
- Heat killed 62,775 people across Europe in the summer of 2024. That is 23.6% more than in 2023.
- Italy recorded the highest heat-related death toll in Europe every year from 2022 to 2024. Its 19,038 deaths in 2024 were more than double Spain’s total.
- Heat deaths are shifting toward southeastern Europe. Greece’s toll rose from 2,517 in 2022 to 5,980 in 2024. Bulgaria’s toll rose from 1,445 to 3,414 over the same period.
- Spain and France’s death tolls fell as Europe’s overall total rose. Spain’s estimated deaths dropped from 12,135 in 2022 to 6,743 in 2024.
- Women accounted for 46.7% more heat-related deaths than men across Europe in 2024. People aged 75 and over died at a rate 323% higher than younger age groups.
- Where extreme heat strikes matters more than how hot it gets. The worst heat hit vulnerable regions in southwestern Europe in 2022 and in southeastern Europe in 2024. That shift explains why 2024’s toll nearly matched 2022’s, the deadliest of the three summers.
EU Countries Ranked by Heat-Related Death Toll
| Country | Heat-Related Deaths | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
| Italy | 19,038 | 13,790 | 18,801 |
| Spain | 6,743 | 8,335 | 12,135 |
| Germany | 6,282 | 6,545 | 9,636 |
| Greece | 5,980 | 3,887 | 2,517 |
| Romania | 4,943 | 3,147 | 2,942 |
| Bulgaria | 3,414 | 2,082 | 1,445 |
| France | 2,451 | 3,614 | 5,839 |
| Poland | 1,780 | 948 | 1,569 |
| Hungary | 1,443 | 555 | 1,013 |
| Croatia | 1,255 | 512 | 724 |
| Austria | 1,055 | 635 | 574 |
| Portugal | 938 | 1,075 | 1,622 |
| Czechia | 544 | 388 | 373 |
| Slovakia | 522 | 263 | 425 |
| Lithuania | 329 | 243 | 485 |
| Slovenia | 280 | 120 | 203 |
| Belgium | 249 | 361 | 631 |
| Netherlands | 234 | 585 | 847 |
| Cyprus | 218 | 128 | 64 |
| Denmark | 174 | 127 | 255 |
| Finland | 152 | 120 | 241 |
| Estonia | 85 | 75 | 193 |
| Latvia | 71 | 67 | 143 |
| Ireland | 37 | 141 | 138 |
| Sweden | 30 | 23 | 96 |
| Luxembourg | 15 | 20 | 31 |
| EU (26 countries, total) | 58,262 | 47,786 | 62,942 |
Source: Janoš et al., Nature Medicine (2022-2024)
The death counts in this table are modeled estimates, not death-certificate counts. Researchers compare actual deaths on hot days against how many deaths that region would normally see on an average day, and count the difference as heat-related.
The original study covers 654 regions in 32 European countries. Six non-EU countries from the study are not shown in this table: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Malta is not part of the original study and does not appear in this table.
The EU total shown here is the sum of the 26 EU countries listed. It differs from the 32-country Europe-wide total referenced elsewhere in this article.
Numbers for 2022 and 2023 were reprocessed using an improved methodology and are higher than the estimates originally published for those years.
Italy holds the EU’s hottest temperature on record, a reading of 48.8°C set in 2021. It also recorded Europe’s highest heat-related death toll every summer from 2022 to 2024. That link runs across the whole continent, not just one country. The regions carrying the greatest risk are changing.
2024 Nearly Matched Europe’s Deadliest Heat Summer on Record
Heat deaths in this article are estimated, not counted one by one. For example, a region might usually see about 100 deaths on a calm summer day. On a heatwave day, that same region might see 130 deaths instead. The extra 30 count as heat-related. Add that gap up across every hot day, in every region, all summer. The sum becomes Europe’s estimated heat death toll.
Europe’s toll over the three summers studied:
- 2022: 67,873 deaths, the highest of the three summers
- 2023: 50,798 deaths
- 2024: 62,775 deaths, 23.6% higher than 2023
Regional temperatures were actually higher in 2022 and 2023 than in 2024, in the specific areas the study covers. Despite that, 2024 nearly matched 2022’s total. The location of the worst heat, not the temperature record itself, decides how many people die.
The Worst Heat Moved From Southwestern to Southeastern Europe
In 2022, the most extreme heat settled over southwestern Europe. Spain absorbed the brunt of it. By 2024, the most extreme heat had shifted toward southeastern Europe and the Balkans. Spain’s death toll fell as a result, reflecting cooler summer temperatures there than in the two previous years.
Heat deaths rose sharply across southeastern Europe between 2022 and 2024:
- Greece: 2,517 to 5,980
- Bulgaria: 1,445 to 3,414
- Croatia: 724 to 1,255
- Romania: 2,942 to 4,943
Death tolls fell over the same period in western and central Europe:
- Spain: 12,135 to 6,743
- France: 5,839 to 2,451
- Germany: 9,636 to 6,282
Raw death counts are shaped by population size. Adjusting for population size confirms the same eastward shift:
- Greece: 574 deaths per million people in 2024, the highest rate in Europe
- Bulgaria: 530 per million
- Europe average: 117 per million
Both Greece and Bulgaria’s rates run more than four times the European average.
Heat Risk in Europe Falls Hardest on Women and the Elderly
Heat death risk is not evenly distributed by sex, age, or region. Women accounted for 46.7% more heat-related deaths than men across Europe in 2024. People aged 75 and older died at a rate 323% higher than all younger age groups combined. The regions facing the worst heat also moved east and south between 2022 and 2024. Within every country, deaths concentrate disproportionately among women and older adults. These are the specific places and groups where adaptation efforts and early-warning systems have the greatest potential to prevent deaths.
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