Global stock indices such as the MSCI World and MSCI ACWI IMI reached new all-time highs in early August 2026. The rally is being driven by easing US-Iran tensions, falling oil prices, and strong technology earnings. If you hold or are considering an ETF savings plan (ETF-Sparplan) in Germany, here is what is behind the surge and why it should not change your strategy.
Why global markets are at record levels
A share of the SPDR MSCI ACWI IMI ETF (ISIN IE00B3YLTY66) tracks nearly the entire global investable stock market. It traded around €11.60 in early August 2026. That is above its previous July high of €11.50.
The MSCI World and MSCI ACWI indices moved in tandem to new records. Many popular ETFs in Germany track these two indices.
Over the past year, the index is up close to 28%. It gained roughly 3% in the past month alone.
It gained nearly 3% over the past seven days alone. That is a sharp acceleration even by the standards of a multi-year bull market.
What is driving the rally
Three factors are pushing valuations higher:
- Easing geopolitical risk: Tensions between the US and Iran have cooled. President Trump has declined further military action. Markets read this as lower risk of a wider conflict disrupting global trade and energy supply.
- Falling oil prices: Heating oil prices dropped around 1.6% day-over-day to roughly €124 per 100 liters. Lower oil prices reduce input costs for companies across sectors. They also ease inflation pressure.
- Strong tech earnings: Major technology companies continue to post outsized results. Palantir, for example, reported quarterly revenue up 93% year-over-year.
What this means if you have an ETF savings plan
Record highs can feel like a signal to wait for a dip before investing more, but that instinct usually costs you money over time.
Financial advisors, including Finanztip, recommend staying committed to a long-term ETF savings plan of 15 years or more. Trying to time the market around highs and lows tends to underperform this approach.
Historically, globally diversified equity indices like the MSCI World have returned around 8% annually over multi-decade periods. Forward-looking estimates are more conservative, around 6% annually.
That still comfortably outpaces the European Central Bank’s 2% inflation target over the long run.
TIP: If you already run a monthly ETF-Sparplan, the standard advice is to keep your contributions running automatically through highs and lows. This is known as the cost-average effect. Pausing contributions because the index is at a record is a form of market timing that tends to underperform staying invested.
NOTE: Record highs do not mean a correction cannot happen. Short-term pullbacks of 10% or more are normal even within a long-term uptrend, and should not by themselves change your long-term allocation.
What you should do
- If you already have an ETF savings plan, keep your existing contribution schedule running rather than reacting to the record high.
- If you are new to investing and have an emergency fund in place, a broad global index fund tracking the MSCI World or MSCI ACWI IMI remains one of the simplest ways to build long-term wealth as an expat in Germany.
- Review your asset allocation once a year rather than after every headline about record markets.
