On 28 February 2026, the US and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran. Iran retaliated by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, attacking Gulf energy infrastructure, and sending drone strikes across the region. The war is now in its second week, and the economic fallout is hitting German households directly.
Here is what is changing and what you can do about it.
Gas prices are rising. Consider locking in a contract now
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important energy chokepoint. Around one-fifth of global oil and LNG supply normally flows through it. Iran blocked it.
QatarEnergy also halted operations at the world’s largest LNG export facility after it was hit in an Iranian drone attack. Qatar alone supplies around 20% of global LNG.
European natural gas futures soared more than 40% in the days after the war began.
Goldman Sachs warned that a full one-month halt to LNG flows through the Strait could push Dutch TTF gas prices toward 74 EUR/MWh. A disruption lasting more than two months could push prices above 100 EUR/MWh. For context, TTF was trading around 31 EUR/MWh just before the conflict began.
German gas prices for new customers are still low. Currently, the average gas price for new customers sits at around 9.25 cents per kWh. This is still below the 2022 peak of around 22 cents.
It means now is the right time to switch to a new gas contract with a price guarantee.
You can compare available contracts with a price guarantee on Verivox* and Check24*. You can even sign a new contract months before your existing one ends. The new provider handles the cancellation of your old contract for you.
Fuel prices have risen
Higher oil prices feed directly into fuel prices at German pumps. Brent crude climbed 27% in a single week following the start of the conflict, settling above $92 per barrel.
There is no workaround here.
If you are already driving less and using public transport where possible, keep doing so. If you are not, the Deutschlandticket for 58€/month is worth reconsidering.
The US dollar is stronger against the Euro
The US dollar made a new 2026 high following the US-Israel attack on Iran.
Oil is traded globally in dollars. As oil becomes more expensive, demand for dollars rises, which pushes the exchange rate up.
Europe imports the vast majority of its energy, so the euro is on the losing side of that equation.
The euro dropped to its lowest level since early December, briefly touching $1.1528 on 3 March 2026. Analysts at ING warn it could fall further toward $1.10–$1.12 if the energy shock drags on.
The longer the Strait of Hormuz stays disrupted, the more pressure the euro faces.
If you are planning a trip to the US, you will be paying more euros for the same dollar budget. Consider delaying or booking in advance if you can lock in current exchange rates through your bank or a service like Wise.
Global ETFs are benefiting (at least in the short term)
This is one area where German investors holding global ETFs actually gain. Emerging markets as a whole were adversely affected by the war, while the US dollar rose in value.
Global ETFs like the MSCI World and S&P 500 hold a large share of US stocks denominated in dollars. As the dollar strengthens against the euro, those holdings are worth more in euros.
This is a short-term currency effect, not a structural improvement. Do not rebalance your portfolio based on it alone.
If you do not have a savings plan in global ETFs, you can open a free trading account and start investing.
During our research, we found Scalable Capital*, SmartBroker+*, or Finanzen.net Zero* as the best online brokers in Germany. You can compare all online brokers in Germany and explore their key features here.
Scalable Capital
- Free savings plans for all ETFs
- Invest from 1 euro savings amount
- Flexible execution dates and frequencies
Finanzen.net Zero
- Very low fees
- Free savings plans
- The account and securities custody are held by Baader Bank
Smartbroker+
- Very low fees
- Free savings plans
- The account and securities custody are held by Baader Bank
Defense stocks are rising
BAE Systems surged as much as 8.3% in early trading, while Saab and Thales both rose 6.1% and Rheinmetall gained 6%. Rheinmetall has now risen 22% in euros since the start of 2026, close to a 200% rise since January 2025.
The logic is straightforward. War increases demand for weapons and defense equipment. Governments accelerate procurement. Defense companies fill the orders.
Investing in a defense ETF, such as the Global X Defense Tech ETF (SHLD), is less risky than investing in an individual stock. Its top holdings include Lockheed Martin, RTX, General Dynamics, Rheinmetall, and Palantir. The ETF has returned 72.8% since April 2025.
However, keep in mind that defense stocks are volatile. The rally depends almost entirely on how long the war lasts and whether procurement spending accelerates.
If the conflict ends quickly, gains can reverse fast. Spread your risk. Defense should be one part of a diversified portfolio, not the whole thing.
Disclaimer: Content in this article is for informational purpose only. It’s not an investment or financial advice.
