EU Inflation Forecast by Country

Key Takeaways

• Romania’s projected inflation rate of 7.8% is the highest in the EU in 2026. It is more than five times Sweden’s 1.5%. Sweden has the lowest inflation forecast in the bloc.
• Romania’s high inflation traces to energy price cap removal and fiscal tightening measures. Tax increases are estimated to add around 4 percentage points to headline inflation between mid-2025 and mid-2026.
• Seven EU member states are forecast to run inflation above 3.5% in 2026. All seven are in Central or Eastern Europe. These countries are Romania, Croatia, the Slovak Republic, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Estonia, and Hungary.
• France (1.8%) and Sweden (1.5%) are the only EU member states projected below the ECB’s 2% target in 2026.
• The EU’s projected average inflation rate for 2026 is 2.8%. Thirteen of 27 member states are projected at 3.0% or above.

Inflation Forecasts Across EU Countries

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The EU’s 27 member states share a single market, but their inflation forecasts for 2026 range from 1.5% to 7.8%. Sweden sits at the bottom of the table. Romania sits at the top.

The projected EU average for 2026 is 2.8%. That is above the European Central Bank’s 2% inflation target. Thirteen of the 27 member states are projected to run at 3.0% or higher.

Romania’s Projected Inflation Rate Is The Highest Among EU Countries

Romania’s 7.8% inflation rate projection puts it in a category of its own. The next highest is Croatia at 4.4%. 

Three pressures explain Romania’s position.

• Energy price caps were removed. This pushed household utility costs sharply higher.
• Tax increases are estimated to add around 4 percentage points to headline inflation between mid-2025 and mid-2026. These include higher VAT and excise duties introduced as part of fiscal consolidation.
• Romania carries the largest fiscal deficit in the EU. The deficit is projected at 6.2% of GDP in 2026. The packages introduced to reduce it were added directly to consumer prices through higher indirect taxes.

EU Countries’ Debt Over Time ->

High-Inflation EU Countries in 2026 Are Concentrated in the East

Seven EU countries are forecast to exceed 3.5% inflation rate in 2026:

• Romania: 7.8%
• Croatia: 4.4%
• Slovak Republic: 4.2%
• Lithuania: 4.0%
• Bulgaria: 3.8%
• Estonia: 3.8%
• Hungary: 3.8%

Greece sits exactly at 3.5%.

The concentration reflects a structural pattern. Wages in Eastern EU economies have grown faster than in Western Europe in recent years. This raised purchasing power in markets where prices were historically below the EU average. Higher purchasing power has fed through to faster price growth. Energy price adjustments have also been more disruptive in economies where retail prices were previously capped or subsidised.

France (1.8%) and Sweden (1.5%) are the only two EU member states projected below the ECB’s 2% target. Denmark sits exactly at 2.0%.

The 2026 forecasts show a bloc still working through the effects of the energy and cost-of-living surge that began in 2021. Most EU countries have brought inflation down from peak levels. The seven high-inflation countries in Central and Eastern Europe remain well above the ECB’s 2% target. France and Sweden are the only two below it.