How Germany’s Birth Rates Dropped — and Deaths Rose

Key Takeaways

• Germany’s baby boom in the 1950s and 1960s led to high birth rates that sharply declined starting in 1972.
• Since 1972, deaths have outnumbered births annually, causing a natural population decline that has grown over time. By 2021, annual deaths exceeded one million for the first time.
• Falling birth rates result from changing family norms, increased women’s education and workforce participation, and widespread access to modern contraception.
• COVID-19 contributed to excess deaths from 2020 to 2022, but long-term trends like low fertility and an aging population primarily drive population decline.
• In 2023, Germany recorded its largest population decrease on record, with over 335,000 fewer people.

Number of Live Births & Deaths in Germany

Year	Live births			Deaths			Net change
	Total	Change (in %)	per 1,000 residents	Total	Change (in %)	per 1,000 residents
2024	677,117	-2.28%	8.1	1,007,758	-2.00%	12.1	-330,641
2023	692,989	-6.21%	8.3	1,028,206	-3.58%	12.3	-335,217
2022	738,819	-6.82%	9	1,066,341	4.17%	12.9	-327,522
2021	795,492	2.88%	9.6	1,023,687	3.99%	12.3	-228,195
2020	773,144	-0.63%	9.3	985,572	4.91%	11.8	-212,428
2019	778,090	-1.34%	9.4	939,520	-1.60%	11.3	-161,430
2018	787,523	0.33%	9.5	954,874	2.42%	11.5	-167,351
2017	784,901	-0.92%	9.5	932,272	2.35%	11.3	-147,371
2016	792,141	7.40%	9.6	910,902	-1.51%	11	-118,761
2015	737,575	3.17%	9	925,200	6.55%	11.3	-187,625
2014	714,927	4.81%	8.8	868,356	-2.85%	10.7	-153,429
2013	682,069	-2.16%	8.5	893,825	2.78%	11.1	-211,756
2012	673,544	-1.57%	8.4	869,582	2.01%	10.8	-196,038
2011	662,685	-2.25%	8.3	852,328	-0.71%	10.6	-189,643
2010	677,947	1.94%	8.3	858,768	0.50%	10.5	-180,821
2009	665,126	-2.56%	8.1	854,544	1.19%	10.4	-189,418
2008	682,514	-0.34%	8.3	844,439	-1.52%	10.3	-161,925
2007	684,862	1.81%	8.3	827,155	-2.23%	10.1	-142,293
2006	672,724	-1.91%	8.2	821,627	-1.29%	10	-148,903
2005	685,795	-2.80%	8.3	830,227	1.46%	10.1	-144,432
2004	705,622	-1.91%	8.5	818,271	-4.20%	9.9	-112,649
2003	706,721	-1.71%	8.6	853,946	1.46%	10.3	-147,225
2002	719,250	-2.13%	8.7	841,686	-1.57%	10.2	-122,436
2001	734,475	-4.19%	8.9	828,541	-1.19%	10.1	-94,066
2000	766,999	-0.83%	9.3	838,797	-0.95%	10.2	-71,798
1999	770,744	-1.82%	9.4	846,330	-0.61%	10.3	-75,586
1998	785,034	-3.58%	9.6	852,382	-0.31%	10.4	-67,348
1997	812,173	2.27%	9.9	860,389	-1.77%	10.5	-48,216
1996	796,013	4.01%	9.7	882,843	-0.20%	10.8	-86,830
1995	765,221	-0.57%	9.4	884,588	-0.01%	10.8	-119,367
1994	769,603	-3.53%	9.5	884,661	-1.43%	10.9	-115,058
1993	798,447	-1.40%	9.8	897,270	1.34%	11.1	-98,823
1992	809,114	-2.64%	10	885,443	-2.29%	11	-76,329
1991	830,019	-8.12%	10.4	911,245	-1.08%	11.4	-81,226
1990	905,675	2.86%	11.4	921,445	2.06%	11.6	-15,770
1989	880,459	-1.41%	11.2	903,441	2.53%	11.5	-22,982
1988	892,993	2.88%	11.4	900,627	-0.07%	11.5	-7,634
1987	867,969	-2.82%	11.2	901,291	2.28%	11.6	-33,322
1986	848,232	4.20%	10.9	925,426	0.52%	11.9	-77,194
1985	813,803	0.19%	10.5	929,649	1.35%	12	-115,846
1984	812,292	-1.89%	10.4	917,299	-2.53%	11.8	-105,007
1983	827,933	-3.91%	10.6	941,032	-0.24%	12.1	-113,099
1982	861,275	-0.10%	11	943,832	-1.33%	12.1	-82,557
1981	862,100	-0.27%	11	954,436	0.22%	12.2	-92,336
1980	865,789	6.24%	11	952,371	-0.83%	12.1	-86,582
1979	817,217	1.06%	10.5	944,474	-1.58%	12.1	-127,257
1978	808,619	0.39%	10.4	955,550	2.62%	12.2	-146,931
1977	805,496	0.90%	10.3	931,155	-3.03%	11.9	-125,659
1976	798,334	2.06%	10.2	966,873	-2.27%	12.3	-168,539
1975	782,310	-2.89%	9.9	989,649	3.46%	12.6	-207,339
1974	805,500	-1.29%	10.2	956,573	-0.59%	12.1	-151,073
1973	815,969	-9.50%	10.3	962,988	-0.28%	12.2	-147,019
1972	901,657	-11.03%	11.4	965,689	0.01%	12.2	-64,032
1971	1,013,396	-3.33%	12.9	965,623	-1.03%	12.3	47,773
1970	1,047,737		13.5	975,664		12.6	72,073

Germany's birth and death rates from 1970-2024. Source: Destatis

In the decades after World War II, Germany saw consistently high birth rates, especially during the baby boom years (1950s-1960s). Starting in 1972, births fell below 900,000 annually. At the same time, deaths steadily climbed, surpassing 960,000 per year. This resulted in a negative deficit in 1972, which means that more people died each year than were born.

Several factors triggered the sharp drop in births around 1972:

• Shifting Family Norms: Couples began choosing smaller families, prioritizing personal lifestyles over larger households.
• Women’s Education and Employment: Longer education and higher workforce participation delayed marriage and motherhood.
• Reliable Contraception: Widespread access to modern birth control, especially the pill, made it easier to avoid unplanned pregnancies and to limit family size.

The gap has widened sharply in recent years. By 2021, annual deaths exceeded one million for the first time. In 2023, Germany recorded a historic population decline of over 335,000 people.

COVID‑19 and related excess mortality contributed to the unusually high death counts in 2020–2022. However, the sustained negative balance reflects a deeper structural shift: 

• low fertility rates
• an increasingly older population
• stable but high annual mortality

Life Expectancy and the Aging Effect

Destatis data shows that people in Germany are living longer than in previous generations. In the 2022/24 period, boys can expect to live 78.5 years, while girls have a life expectancy of 83.2 years [1].

This steady rise over decades has expanded the share of older adults within the population, a key driver behind the increasing number of annual deaths. Combined with historically low birth rates, Germany faces a structural, long-term natural population decline.

The aging and declining population of Germany has also strained its social security system. It has resulted in decreasing pensions and increasing social security contributions.

The health insurance premiums are also increasing steadily. Without any systemic change, the German social system may collapse.

References

• https://www.uni-siegen.de/en/news/between-revolution-and-risk-65-years-of-the-contraceptive-pill 
• https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Sterbefaelle-Lebenserwartung/_inhalt.html?
• https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Population/Births/Tables/lrbev04.html#242410